Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Market Cues
BSE Sensex
(0.01)
(3)
35,141
Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
Nifty
0.9
100
10,582
U.S. stocks fluctuated wildly over the course of the trading session on Wednesday
Mid Cap
0.3
46
14,853
after failing to sustain an initial move to the downside. The major averages pulled
Small Cap
0.2
29
14,578
back firmly into negative territory in morning trading before staging an unsuccessful
Bankex
1.1
292
29,145
recovery attempt in the afternoon. The Dow fell 0.8 percent to 25,080 while the
Nasdaq tumbled 0.9 percent to 7,136.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
U.K. shares fell on Wednesday as investors fretted about slowing global growth and
Dow Jones
(0.8)
(206)
25,080
awaited the outcome of a make-or-break cabinet meeting today where Prime
Nasdaq
(0.9)
(65)
7,136
Minister Theresa May will try to sell her Brexit deal to her top team. The benchmark
FTSE
(0.6)
(42)
7,012
FTSE 100 was down by 0.6% to close at 7,012.
Nikkei
0.2
36
21,846
On domestic front, Indian shares gave up earlier gains to end on a flat note
Hang Seng
(0.5)
(138)
25,654
Wednesday, despite a steep fall in oil prices and appreciation in the rupee. The BSE
Shanghai Com
(0.8)
(22)
2,632
Sensex was ended flat to 35,141.
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
News Analysis
Advances
1,337
929
WPI rises to 4-month high of 5.28% in October, up from 5.13% in Sept
Declines
1,200
802
JM Financial Credit Solutions to raise up to Rs 12.5bn through bonds
Unchanged
142
329
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Volumes (` Cr)
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
BSE
1,820
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
NSE
853
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Top Picks
FII
(1,077)
(1,418)
(6,857)
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
*MFs
1,125
3,967
80,584
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
576
867
50.5
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
239
473
97.9
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
245
330
34.7
190
9.9
Bata India
Others
Buy
998
1,243
24.5
471
9.6
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
379
486
28.2
More Top Picks on Pg4
1,048
7.7
578
7.6
Key Upcoming Events
52
7.1
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
Nov 15, 2018 AU
CPI QoQ
0.00
0.01
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Nov 15,2018 AU
CPI YoY
0.02
0.02
107
-10.5
Nov 15,2018 Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
2.30
153
-7.6
Nov 16,2018 UK
BOE Announces rates
(0.40)
--
Nov 16,2018 Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
0.00
(0.00)
520
-7.4
More Events on Pg7
197
-6.4
163
-5.3
As on Nov 14, 2018
Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
News Analysis
WPI rises to 4-month high of 5.28% in October, up from 5.13% in Sept
The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rate rose to a four-month high of
5.28 per cent in October, up from 5.13 per cent in September. Earlier, data
showed that CPI fell to a one-year low of 3.31 per cent in October from 3.7 per
CPI inflation, economists said the monetary policy committee may not change the
policy rate in next month’s meeting. “Despite the change in the monetary policy
stance to calibrated tightening, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) appears
likely to maintain a status quo on the repo rate in the December 2018 policy
review, following the decline in the October 2018 headline CPI inflation, the deep
correction in crude oil prices, and the pullback in the value of rupee. The
difference between the WPI and CPI inflation rates was mainly because of the
composition of the two indices. Food items account for more than 45 per cent in
CPI, while its weight is just over 14 per cent in WPI.
JM Financial Credit Solutions to raise up to Rs 12.5bn through bonds
Wednesday said it plans to raise up to Rs 12.50 billion through bonds. This base
issue of the second tranche is Rs
2.5 billion, with an option to retain
oversubscription up to Rs 10 billion, the company said in a release. In the first
tranche, the company had raised Rs 7.5 billion in June 2018. The issue has six
structures of various tenors and offering a coupon in the range of 9.67 per cent to
10.25 per cent.
Economic and Political News
Corporate News
Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
5,547
576
867
50.5
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
7,491
239
473
97.9
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,32,308
367
416
13.4
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
2,994
379
486
28.2
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,897
333
475
42.6
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,806
385
752
95.3
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,22,703
7,372
10,820
46.8
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,383
257
424
65.0
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,686
756
1,000
32.3
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
23,587
107
198
85.0
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,062
245
330
34.7
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,11,596
1,958
2,350
20.0
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
95,775
770
1,050
36.4
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,695
857
1,135
32.4
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
12,828
998
1,243
24.5
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
28,134
1,240
1,764
42.3
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
17,035
176
327
85.8
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,557
1,065
1,287
20.8
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
45,858
783
870
11.1
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
51,423
222
365
64.4
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
23,317
548
690
25.9
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the leading
brands in kitchen appliances in India after its
successful transformation from a single product
TTK Prestige
8,008
6,873
7,500
9.1
company to offering an entire gamut of home
and kitchen appliances. We are expecting a
CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25% in PAT over
FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,868
84
127
51.2
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
31,292
107
156
45.8
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,597
270
360
33.3
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,359
1,581
2,178
37.8
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,414
1,785
2,500
40.1
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,706
139
256
84.2
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
23,935
133
210
57.9
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Nov 15, 2018
GE
CPI Rhineland-Palatinate YoY
% Change
Oct
0.02
--
Nov 15, 2018
GE
CPI Baden Wuerttemberg MoM
% Change
Oct
0.01
--
Nov 15, 2018
GE
CPI Baden Wuerttemberg YoY
% Change
Oct
0.03
--
Nov 15, 2018
12:00 AM
MX
Budget Balance YTD
% Change
Sep
-230.8b
--
Nov 16, 2018
12:00 AM
NC
Remittances Total
% Change
Sep
--
--
Nov 16, 2018
3:15 AM
NZ
Building Permits MoM
% Change
Sep
0.08
--
Nov 16, 2018
4:30 AM
SK
Industrial Production SA MoM
% Change
Sep
0.01
(0.01)
Nov 16, 2018
4:30 AM
SK
Industrial Production YoY
% Ratio
Sep
0.03
(0.07)
Nov 19, 2018
4:30 AM
SK
Cyclical Leading Index Change
% Sep
(0.40)
--
Nov 19, 2018
5:20 AM
JN
Industrial Production MoM
% Change Sep P
0.00
(0.00)
Nov 19, 2018
5:20 AM
JN
Industrial Production YoY
% Change Sep P
0.00
(0.02)
Nov 19, 2018
5:30 AM
NZ
ANZ Activity Outlook
% Oct
7.80
--
Nov 19, 2018
5:30 AM
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
% Oct
(38.30)
--
Nov 20, 2018
5:31 AM
UK
GfK Consumer Confidence
Thousands
Oct
(9.00)
(10.00)
Nov 20, 2018
5:31 AM
UK
Lloyds Business Barometer
% Change
Oct
29.00
--
Nov 20, 2018
5:31 AM
UK
BRC Shop Price Index YoY
% Change
Oct
0.00
--
Nov 20, 2018
6:00 AM
AU
CPI QoQ
% Change
3Q
0.00
0.01
Nov 20, 2018
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
8.2
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.1
6.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
6.3
4.5
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
50.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
87424
11.2
10.4
15.1
Russia
Micex
2352
-5.0
1.3
13.0
India
Nifty
10387
-5.6
-8.5
-0.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2603
-7.7
-9.5
-23.8
South Africa
Top 40
46141
-6.9
-10.1
-12.7
Mexico
Mexbol
42340
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
923
-2.4
-1.2
-8.3
Malaysia
KLCI
1704
-3.6
-4.4
-2.2
Thailand
SET 50
1104
-4.7
-0.5
0.8
USA
Dow Jones
25116
-5.8
-1.2
6.8
UK
FTSE
7085
-5.2
-8.0
-5.9
Japan
Nikkei
21770
-10.8
-3.8
-3.4
Germany
DAX
11448
-7.2
-10.6
-14.8
France
CAC
5093
-7.5
-7.6
-7.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 02 Nov, 2018
Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
31-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,235
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
November 15, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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